Every brief we’ve filed
Five themes, one bet a day each. Odds shown are as quoted in each piece, at its press time.
SPORTS · “Will the Big 12 conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”Big 12 National Championship Odds Jump 20 Cents Overnight After Dominant Week 1POLITICS · “Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election?”Trump's Vance Endorsement Is Repricing: The Market Has Cut It From 55¢ to 45¢FINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?”The 10-Year Yield Is 16 Basis Points From 5.0% — Polymarket Now Prices It as the Likely OutcomeCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $85K Year-End Bet Drops 14 Cents in a Week: What the Market Is Telling YouAI · “Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 15, 2026?”Haiku Jumps 10 Cents as Anthropic's Fourth Hacking Disclosure Reshuffles Claude Release BetsSPORTS · “Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Ben Shelton Ends Alcaraz's Reign in US Open History — The Market Reprices Around a New American DreamPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?”Iowa Senate 2026: Is the Market Too Harsh on Turek at 34 Cents?FINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?”Polymarket Prices an October Fed Hold at 68¢ — Kalshi Sees It at 36¢. Two Inflation Prints Will Settle the Argument.CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $70K Dip Contract Reprices: What the 12-Cent Drop in YES Tells TradersAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?”Claude Opus 5 by Year-End: What the 66¢ YES Price Is Actually BuyingPOLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”Senate 2026: Democrats at 52¢ While the Map Turns BlueFINANCE · “Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?”August Core CPI: The 44-Cent Bet That Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Almost Anyone ExpectsCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $75K Dip Bet Just Got 14 Points Cheaper: What the ETF Flood Means for Year-End DownsideAI · “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?”Anthropic Sits at 84¢ Odds to Hold the AI Throne — But Three Rivals Just Knocked on the DoorSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open?”Alcaraz Surges to 57¢ to Reach US Open Final as Draw Collapses Around HimFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Fed Rate Hike by September 2026: A 50/50 Market Staring Down a 58.4% Futures SignalCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?”Ethereum's $1,750 Dip Market Collapses to 17¢ as Rally Rewrites the FloorAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Claude Opus by September 30: The Market Just Moved to 82¢ — Is It Right?SPORTS · “Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”Big Ten CFP Odds Jump 10 Cents After Week 1: Justified Confidence or 52-Cent Overreach?POLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 0%-3%?”Georgia Senate 2026: Ossoff's Lead Evaporates and Polymarket Takes NoticeFINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?”5% Yields Won't Happen: Why Polymarket Traders Dumped YES Contracts Even After a Blowout Jobs ReportCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $16K Week Cuts the $75K Dip Odds by 12 Cents — But the Level Is Still Only $4.6K AwayAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Claude Opus by Sept 30: Fermat's Ghost Lifts Market Odds to 67 CentsSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open?”Alcaraz Jumps to 44 Cents on Polymarket After Faria Demolition and Sinner ExitPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?”Musk's America PAC Bets $170K on Maine Senate Upset — Markets Still Price Democrats at 70 CentsFINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?”Fed Hold Odds Crater 17 Cents in Three Weeks: What the September Rate Market Is Telling YouCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $85K Market Jumps to 78 Cents as Waller Blinks on RatesAI · “Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?”Astra Announced, Market Unmoved: Traders Give 18¢ Odds on a September 4 Public ReleasePOLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”Democrats Favored to Flip the Senate: Eight Battleground Leads, One Tight MarketFINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?”Bond Vigilantes Clock In: Why the 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Now Near Even MoneyCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?”Ethereum's $2,750 Bet Just Crossed Even Money — What Flipped the Market in One MonthAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Claude Opus by September 30: A 56-44 Market in Transition After Anthropic's Security DisclosureSPORTS · “Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”Big Ten Championship Odds Drop 10 Cents in Three Days: What the Repricing Actually MeansFINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?”The 10-Year at 4.81%: Is 5.0% a Done Deal or a Geopolitical Mirage?CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin at $75k by Year-End: Why the Prediction Market Just Moved to 90 CentsAI · “Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?”Gemini 3.8 Flash Priced at 91¢ to Drop Today: What the Market Is Telling YouSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Alcaraz Hits 34¢ on Polymarket as Sinner and Djokovic Exit the PictureFINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?”84¢ on 4.8%: Is Polymarket Pricing a Rate Hike the Fed Won't Deliver?AI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Claude Opus September Odds Drop 14 Cents After Anthropic Discloses AI Safety IncidentsSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open?”Alcaraz Returns, Market Reprices: Is 40¢ the Right Number for a Four-Month Comeback?POLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”Michigan Senate 2026: Why the Market Prices El-Sayed as a Coin-Flip When Polls Say He's a FavoriteFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Fed Rate Hike by September? Polymarket Flips to a Coin Toss as Friday's Jobs Report LoomsCRYPTO · “Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 1?”Ethereum Holds $2,400 After ETF Surge: What Polymarket's 78¢ YES Says About the Next 24 HoursAI · “Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on August 31, 2026?”Anthropic Mythos August Bet Fades to 32¢ With Hours Left on the ClockSPORTS · “Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”Big Ten at 52¢: Three Straight Titles and a Market That Can't Make Up Its MindPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?”Iowa Senate 2026: Is Polymarket Sleeping on a Genuine Toss-Up?FINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?”Warsh's Jackson Hole Warning Sends October Fed Hike Odds to 58¢CRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?”Ethereum at Even Money: What 50-50 Odds on $3,000 Actually MeanAI · “Will OpenAI's Astra model be released before August 31, 2026?”OpenAI's Astra Model: 36 Cents on a 24-Hour WindowSPORTS · “Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?”Rueben Bain Jr. Jumps to 20¢ on DORY Market After Preseason Flash and Manageable Shoulder InjuryPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?”Ohio Senate 2026: Is the Market Sleeping on a Polling Mirage?FINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Warsh's Jackson Hole Warning Pushes September Rate-Hike Odds to 42¢ on PolymarketCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by January 1, 2027?”Bitcoin's $85K Odds Tripled in 11 Days — Then the Fed Showed UpAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Claude Opus Next: Polymarket Traders Just Paid 86 Cents on Leaked Codenames and One Engineer's TweetSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open?”Alcaraz at 34 Cents: Is the Market Pricing a Wrist or a War?POLITICS · “Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?”Harris SC Primary Market Drops 12 Cents in Seven Days as Democrats Break RanksFINANCE · “Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?”Fed Rate Cut by September 2026: Why the Market Is Pricing It at 2 CentsCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $75K Dip Contract Just Doubled: What Polymarket Traders Are Pricing InAI · “Will the next DeepSeek Flash released by September 30, 2026?”DeepSeek V5 Flash: Is the September Leak Worth 47 Cents?SPORTS · “Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?”Sabalenka at 21¢: Defending Champion, Collapsing FormPOLITICS · “Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?”Alaska Senate Race Gets a Doppelgänger Problem: What the Spoiler Ballot Is Doing to Prediction MarketsFINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?”Fed October Pause at 72¢: What Prediction Markets Are Telling You About the Next Rate DecisionCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin at $80K, $95K on the Clock: Is Polymarket's 39-Cent YES a Bargain or a Trap?AI · “Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?”Alibaba at 93¢: Can Qwen3.8-Flash Lock Up the Chinese AI Crown Before Sunday's Snapshot?SPORTS · “Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 Premier League title?”Arsenal at 52¢: Two Dominant Wins Have the Market Calling a Two-Horse RaceFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Fed Hike Odds Have Been Cut Nearly in Half Since July — Is the Market Getting Ahead of Itself?CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $70k Dip Market Is Pricing 68% Odds — Here's Why the Whales Are Already Cashing OutAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?”Marshmallow on the Grill: Claude's Leaked Models Push Opus-by-Sept-30 to 57¢SPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner's US Open Defense Is Over: Polymarket Moves from 32¢ to 0¢ in 48 HoursPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”Texas 2026 Senate: Cook Calls Toss-Up, Polymarket Barely FlinchesCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin at $77,081: Is the $80,000 Threshold Locked In, or a Trap for Late Chasers?AI · “Will OpenAI's Astra model be released before August 31, 2026?”OpenAI's Astra Market Collapses to 22¢: Cybersecurity Flag Kills August Release HopesSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Alcaraz Returns, Market Reprices — But Does 26¢ Tell the Whole Story?POLITICS · “Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary (resolves 2028-01-22)?”South Carolina Goes First in 2028: What Harris at 34¢ Is Actually PricingFINANCE · “Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?”August Jobs Report Preview: Polymarket Splits the Difference at 4.1% vs. 4.2% UnemploymentCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin $85,000 Market Jumps from 20 to 63 Cents in 72 Hours: Does the CLARITY Act Reprice Hold?AI · “Will Anthropic release the next Claude Haiku model by October 31, 2026?”Claude Haiku October Odds Hit 60¢ as Anthropic Weathers Eight Days of OutagesSPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner's Knee Puts the US Open Market in Binary Mode: 32¢ and Falling Toward a Yes-or-No DecisionFINANCE · “Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?”Core CPI at 2.3% in August? The Math Says the Market Is Being GenerousCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?”ETH Dip-to-$1,750 Market Collapses 46 Cents in Four Days as Short Squeeze and Regulatory Shift Flip the NarrativeAI · “Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?”Anthropic's Risk Report Killed the Mythos Release Market in 48 HoursSPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner's US Open Odds Crater 12 Cents in 24 Hours as Participation Risk Enters the PicturePOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?”Wyoming Senate 2026: Is 2 Cents for Democrats Absurd or Accurate?FINANCE · “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?”Treasury Yield Market Prices 75% Odds of 4.8% Before Year-End as FOMC Minutes LoomCRYPTO · “Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?”Solana's $100 Bet Just Got 37% Cheaper: What the Market Collapse Is Telling YouAI · “Will OpenAI's Astra model be released before August 31, 2026?”OpenAI's Astra at 34¢: Is a 12-Day Safety Sprint Enough to Ship a Cyber-Critical Model?SPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner at 40 Cents: Is the US Open Market Overdoing the Knee Scare?POLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?”Georgia Senate 2026: Polymarket Is Pricing a "Tilt Democratic" Race Like It's Still a Toss-UpFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Polymarket Prices a 28% Chance the Fed Hikes in September. Ninety Percent of Economists Disagree.CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin $85K by December 31: Fundstrat's 30% Volatility Thesis vs. Polymarket's 5-to-1 OddsAI · “Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?”Polymarket Prices 74% Odds on Mythos Public Release by September 30 — But Anthropic's Own Holdback Says OtherwiseSPORTS · “Will David Bailey win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?”David Bailey's DROY Odds Crater 43% in Nine Days: Ankle Wobble or Market Overreaction?POLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”Senate Control Hits 50/50: Is the Heartland Finally Turning?FINANCE · “Will the Fed raise rates by 25bps at the September 16 FOMC meeting?”Fed September Hike Odds Crater 16 Cents in Six Days: What the Prediction Markets Are Pricing NowCRYPTO · “Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?”SOL at 48¢: Three Chart Signals, Two Governance Votes, and a $100 TargetAI · “Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?”Claude Sonnet's Next Act: Why the Prediction Market Jumped 13 Cents in Two DaysSPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner at Even Money: What a Knee Injury and a Depleted Draw Mean for the 2026 US Open MarketPOLITICS · “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”Trump Backed Vance for 2028 — So Why Is He Still Trading at 23 Cents?FINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?”One Soft Print, 28 Cents: How July CPI Repriced the September Fed HoldCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?”Ethereum's $1,750 Dip Contract Is Priced at 81 Cents. Is the Market Right?AI · “Will OpenAI's Astra model be released before August 31, 2026?”OpenAI's Astra Pause Cuts Release Odds to 22¢: What the Cybersecurity Flag Means for the August 31 DeadlineSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Alcaraz at 12¢: Why the Market Is Pricing Him Out of His Own DefenseFINANCE · “Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?”The Unemployment Rate Fell — But the Labor Market Didn't Improve. Polymarket Is Pricing That Gap at 31¢.CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $75K Target Is Losing Faith Fast: Polymarket Contract Drops 10 Cents in Seven DaysAI · “Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?”Claude Sonnet 6 Odds Collapse 25 Cents in a Day: Is Anthropic's Release Firehose Running Dry?SPORTS · “Will the American Conference win the 2027 College Football Playoff national championship?”American Conference's CFP Title Odds Collapse From 46¢ to 5¢ in Four Days: The Market Does the MathPOLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”Senate 2026: Is 52¢ Leaving Money on the Table for Democrats?FINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?”October Hike Odds Fall to 38¢ as July Inflation Data Softens the Fed's CaseCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's $60K Dip Market Hits 82¢: One Number Does a Lot of WorkAI · “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?”Claude Opus by October 2026: Is Anthropic Timing Its Flagship Model to the IPO Bell?POLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”Michigan Senate 2026: El-Sayed Won the Primary, But the Market Is Pricing a Different RaceFINANCE · “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?”Jobs Shock Resets the Fed Rate-Hike Bet: Polymarket's September Odds Fall to 40¢CRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin at $65K With an $80K Consensus: Why Polymarket's 34-Cent YES Is Doing the Heavy Lifting for SkepticsAI · “Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026?”Claude Haiku by August 31? The Market Says Probably Not.SPORTS · “Will the American conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”The American Conference Market Jumped 42 Cents in a Day. The Math Does Not Support It.POLITICS · “Will the Republican candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6% or more?”From 40 Cents to 3: Mike Collins and the Fastest Collapse in Georgia's Prediction MarketsFINANCE · “Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?”Core CPI July Preview: Polymarket Prices 2.5% as the More Likely Outcome — Here Is Why That Is InterestingCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?”Bitcoin at $65K Needs a 23% Sprint to $80K by September — Polymarket Gives It 2 CentsAI · “Will Anthropic release the next Claude Haiku model by August 31, 2026?”Claude Haiku Next Release by August 31: The Market Has Made Up Its MindSPORTS · “Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship”Big Ten CFP Futures Collapse 18 Cents in Four Days: What the Market Is Actually PricingFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?”October Fed Rate Hike Market Drops 14 Cents in a Week: What the Data Is SayingCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?”ETH at $1,916: Polymarket Prices $2,250 by Year-End at 57¢AI · “Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?”GPT-6 by September 30? The Market Just Cut Its Bet in HalfSPORTS · “Will David Bailey win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?”David Bailey's Defensive ROY Market Jumps 14 Cents on Jets Camp Buzz — Is 28¢ the Right Price?POLITICS · “Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6% or more?”Georgia Senate Margin Contract Drops 17 Cents as GOP Breaks Ranks for OssoffFINANCE · “Will the Fed raise interest rates at its September 18, 2025 meeting?”Fed September Hike Odds Collapse to 36 Cents After Jobs Shock — But the CPI Print Will Have the Final WordCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin at $75,000 by End of 2026: The Market Says 50-50, and the Math AgreesAI · “Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?”OpenAI Named It Astra. Polymarket Named It a 52-Cent Collapse.POLITICS · “Will the Republican candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6% or more?”Georgia Senate 2026 — Does Collins Win By a Rout?FINANCE · “Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?”Core PCE at 3.3%: Fed Forecast Spooked Traders — Market Halved OvernightCRYPTO · “Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?”Senate Kills Clarity Act Vote Before Recess; Market Reprices to 3¢AI · “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?”Gemini Pro Aug 10 Collapse: From 37¢ to 6¢ in 24 HoursSPORTS · “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Alcaraz's 10¢ Odds Overreach: No Matches in 4 Months, Tenosynovitis Grip, Cincinnati Withdrawal YesterdayPOLITICS · “Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election?”Trump Backs Vance to 49¢: Endorsement Odds Surge on Donor RemarksFINANCE · “Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?”Will July Core PCE Hold Steady at 3.3%? Disinflation Put to the TestCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?”BlackRock's ETH ETF Spread Cut Sparks $2K RepricingAI · “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?”Gemini Aug 10 Odds Crater 35¢ on Leadership ShuffleSPORTS · “Will a Big Ten team win the 2026-27 CFP National Championship?”Big Ten National Title Odds Fall 14¢ Despite Media Days SwaggerFINANCE · “Will China's 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?”China's Full-Year Growth Consensus Narrowing as Q1 Sprint FadesCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?”Ethereum $2,000: Institution Money Flowing, Market Pricing Only 27 CentsAI · “Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026?”Claude Haiku 5 Release Odds Flip 50/50 as Anthropic Cadence AcceleratesSPORTS · “Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?”Sinner or the Rust Factor: Defending Champion Alcaraz Returns from Four-Month LayoffPOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?”Ohio Senate at Dead Heat: Polls Show Democratic Edge as Polymarket Sits at 50-50FINANCE · “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?”September FOMC Hike Odds Tighten After July DissentsCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin $95K Underpriced at 10 CentsAI · “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?”Google Gemini Pro Priced for August 10 Release — 25 Cents Ahead of Hardware EventSPORTS · “Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's US Open?”Sabalenka US Open Favorite at 28¢ — Defending Champ With Hard Court EdgePOLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”Michigan Primary Nominee Divergence: Why Polymarket May Misprice the Democratic Senate GeneralFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?”October Fed Hike Odds Climbing on Energy Inflation and DissentCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin $70K Recovery Priced In Despite Fed Hike ShockAI · “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?”Gemini 3.5 Pro: Market Reprices Hard as Launch Momentum StallsSPORTS · “Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League Championship?”Arsenal's Title Defense at 36¢: Is the Champion Underpriced?POLITICS · “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”Texas Senate: Polling Momentum vs. Market SkepticismCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?”ETH $2.75k by Year-End: Market Reprices Oversold Bounce Into Macro SkepticismAI · “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?”Gemini 3.5 Pro Finally Coming Aug 6—Market Prices the GambleSPORTS · “Will the Big Ten conference win the 2026-27 College Football Playoff National Championship?”Big Ten National Championship Dominance — Is 64¢ the Floor?FINANCE · “Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?”July 2026 Unemployment: Why Polymarket Is Charging Only 42 Cents for the Consensus CallCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's August Test: Can $80,000 Rally Survive the Hedges?SPORTS · “Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?”Yankees at 12¢: Judge's Injury Prices a Championship Contender Into Long OddsPOLITICS · “Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?”Senate Flips in Trump Strongholds: Market Prices 86¢ Odds Republicans Lose GroundFINANCE · “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”Fed's September Hike Odds Tighten After Three-Dissent HoldCRYPTO · “Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?”Bitcoin's 15% Hurdle: $75,000 by Year-End Priced Dead EvenAI · “Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?”GPT-6 Clearance Race: Regulatory Gate Priced Far Bleaker Than Altman's SignalsFINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?”September Fed: Three Dissents Push Hike Odds Higher Than the Market PricesAI · “Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?”Is OpenAI Bluffing on GPT-6? September Market Cools to 70¢SPORTS · “Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?”76ers Championship Odds: The Hype Unwind, Now at 7.5 CentsCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July 2026?”Ethereum $2k July Rout: 6¢ Odds on a 47-Hour MiracleSPORTS · “Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 MLB World Series?”Dodgers at 33¢: The World Series Favorite That Everyone Agrees On — and What That MeansFINANCE · “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?”Fed July Hold: Sticky Inflation vs Pause SignalCRYPTO · “Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?”ETH: $2,000 by July 31 — Momentum or Mirage?POLITICS · “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?”House Control at 86: Democrats Favored Despite Historical Midterm HeadwindAI · “Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)”Anthropic Dominates the August Model Race — But the Market Prices 10% Tail Risk